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who's who among political parties for the upcoming presidential election
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January 1, 2006 |
Anticipated Comprehension of the Possible Scenarios of the Political Parties’ Attitudes towards Upcoming Presidential Elections
SANA’A – It is early to talk about the situations of the political parties in the 2006 presidential elections, especially in a country like Yemen in which most of the political forces are subject willingly or unwillingly to the presidential institution.
From the current political scenario, a map can be drawn for the situations of the Yemeni parties and their stances from the presidential elections. It is as follows: the ruling party, two opposition blocs (the Joint Meeting Parties and the National Council Parties) and some other small parties outside these blocs.
First: The Ruling Party - People’s General Congress (PGC):
The ruling party is considered the most qualified Yemeni political party to go into the presidential elections because it possesses the constitutional percentage, 5% of the present members of the parliament and Shura council, to recommend any candidate for the presidential elections. According to the preliminary information, the leadership of the ruling party insists to re-nominate President Saleh for a second term. The announcement of the PGC candidate might be made in the seventh conference of the PGC. However, there’s a possibility that President Saleh will insist not to run for a new term. In this case it is difficult to guess who will be the alternate candidate to receive the approval and appreciation of the PGC, due to the complex structure of the party. This situation throws the ball in the opposition ground giving a better chance for their candidate. But those who are familiar with the ruling system in Yemen rule out this possibility.
Second: The Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)
The formula of the joint meeting parties is a gathering of strong opposition to the ruling party. It includes the principal opposition parties: the Islah Party, the Yemeni Socialist Party, the Popular Union Nasserite Party, the Arab National Ba’ath Party (Baghdad wing), the Public Forces Union and Al-Haq Party. Those parties get together in mid August 1996 and were set up to meet certain demands. The major issues of discussion at that time were limited to the impartiality of the election and providing suitable conditions for the election process. However, every party then kept the right to initiate dialogue with any other party. Although, eights have passed of the JMP, it failed to become an allied frontline.
It partially succeeded in coordination during the 2002 local council elections and the 2003 parliamentary elections. But the JMP failed in the 1999 presidential election when the Islah party had individually nominated President Saleh. The JMP boycotted the elections in 1999 because the parliament did not recommend their candidate.
It is adventurous to talk about the JMP as one solid political assembly especially when we take the upcoming presidential elections into account. During their general conferences this year, the Islah, the Nasserite and the Socialists did not announce any position concerning the presidential elections. This implies that they may agree to nominate one candidate for the elections. However, it is better to shed light on the components of the JMP each by its own.
The Islah Party
Although the Islamic-oriented Islah is the most influential opposition party, its stance remains equivocal. The party decided to join fellow parties in the JMP, mostly expected to take a common decision. Islah’s standpoint differs greatly this time from that in the 1999 presidential elections. In the previous elections, the Islah took a stand at the crossroads of the ruling party and the opposition.
The party was actually reconciling its interests that were in the government’s side, was the hope to secure a longer life for the religious institutes. Unfortunately, the Islah, after the 1999 presidential elections, was disappointed by the authority’s move to crack down religious institutes, a development that drew it closer to the Nasserite and Socialist party.
In the local council elections of 2000 and legislative polls of 2003, the party managed to forge a strong alliance with the two parties. In the coming presidential elections in 2006, the Islah is not likely to repeat its attitude of the 1999 elections.
Political observers rule out that the Islah will nominate its own challenger in the next presidential elections, in 2006, apart from its umbrella, the JMP. Islah’s is now slated to sit with other stakeholders over the competition in the presidential polls.
A sign of smoother alliance is the fact that the Socialists last general conference came up to the estimation of the Islah, as it elected to the new secretary general veteran Yasin Saeed Noaman, a figure well recognized among Islahis.
The Socialist Party
The major alterations within the Socialist – in the time interval between the last and the next presidential elections – are the regrouping and recovery of its post-1994 status. After the success of their fifth general conference, the Socialists revived their nostalgia for a return to the presidency in a political deal by making use of being a unity stakeholder. The party even contemplates a competition for taking the office on its own through a strong rivalry. This prompts the party to adopt a political rather than ideological social identity, which marked it off over the time of its rule in the south.
In general, the Socialists views the presidential competitions as to be determined by the role of the ruling authority and the authenticity of the reforms within the JMP.
Popular Union Nasserite Party
The party is waiting carefully for outcome of the current dialogues between other opposition parties of the joint meeting and the ruling party. In its tenth conference, the party did not mention its position over the coming presidential elections like Islah party and Yemeni Socialist Party.
But the leadership of the Wahdawi party confirmed that it would compete in the elections through the Joint Meeting Parties or not.
As there is a disagreement occurred between the party and Yemeni Socialist Party on initiative of the joint meeting parties on political reforms in the country.
Arab National Ba’ath Party, Haq Party and Federation of the Popular Forces are suffering from weakness of their structure and absence popularly.
These parties granted together not more 40,000 votes in the latest parliamentary elections.
Despite of their current situation, but the three parties are still playing important role, especially Haq Party and Federation of the Popular Forces as they represent interests of groups of the society.
Third- The National Council for Opposition Parties
This gathering includes eight Yemeni political parties; Democratic Nasserite Party, National Front for Democracy, Social and National Party, Party of liberation Front, Party of Popular Unity, Party of Yemen League, Party of Union Popular Liberation and Democratic Federation for Popular Forces.
All of these parties have not representation in the parliament and have not any serious opposition positions in the Yemeni political arena. It is expected that they will support a candidate of the ruling party in the coming presidential elections.
There are political parties stand out of the JMP, and the national council; Yemeni Sons League (Ray) and the Yemen Wahdawi Tajammo Party.
The Yemeni Sons League was first Yemeni political party who issued a statement in which he welcomed initiative of the president Ali Abdullah Saleh that he will not nominate himself for the coming elections. The party is not represented in the parliament and has limited attendance in Aden and Hadhramout governorates.
The party of Yemen Wahdawai Tajammo has little impact in the Yemeni political life and not represented in the parliament. The two parties may boycott the elections.
SANA’A – It is early to talk about the situations of the political parties in the 2006 presidential elections, especially in a country like Yemen in which most of the political forces are subject willingly or unwillingly to the presidential institution.
From the current political scenario, a map can be drawn for the situations of the Yemeni parties and their stances from the presidential elections. It is as follows: the ruling party, two opposition blocs (the Joint Meeting Parties and the National Council Parties) and some other small parties outside these blocs.
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First: The Ruling Party - People’s General Congress (PGC):
The ruling party is considered the most qualified Yemeni political party to go into the presidential elections because it possesses the constitutional percentage, 5% of the present members of the parliament and Shura council, to recommend any candidate for the presidential elections. According to the preliminary information, the leadership of the ruling party insists to re-nominate President Saleh for a second term. The announcement of the PGC candidate might be made in the seventh conference of the PGC. However, there’s a possibility that President Saleh will insist not to run for a new term. In this case it is difficult to guess who will be the alternate candidate to receive the approval and appreciation of the PGC, due to the complex structure of the party. This situation throws the ball in the opposition ground giving a better chance for their candidate. But those who are familiar with the ruling system in Yemen rule out this possibility.
Second: The Joint Meeting Parties (JMP)
The formula of the joint meeting parties is a gathering of strong opposition to the ruling party. It includes the principal opposition parties: the Islah Party, the Yemeni Socialist Party, the Popular Union Nasserite Party, the Arab National Ba’ath Party (Baghdad wing), the Public Forces Union and Al-Haq Party. Those parties get together in mid August 1996 and were set up to meet certain demands. The major issues of discussion at that time were limited to the impartiality of the election and providing suitable conditions for the election process. However, every party then kept the right to initiate dialogue with any other party. Although, eights have passed of the JMP, it failed to become an allied frontline.
It partially succeeded in coordination during the 2002 local council elections and the 2003 parliamentary elections. But the JMP failed in the 1999 presidential election when the Islah party had individually nominated President Saleh. The JMP boycotted the elections in 1999 because the parliament did not recommend their candidate.
It is adventurous to talk about the JMP as one solid political assembly especially when we take the upcoming presidential elections into account. During their general conferences this year, the Islah, the Nasserite and the Socialists did not announce any position concerning the presidential elections. This implies that they may agree to nominate one candidate for the elections. However, it is better to shed light on the components of the JMP each by its own.
The Islah Party
Although the Islamic-oriented Islah is the most influential opposition party, its stance remains equivocal. The party decided to join fellow parties in the JMP, mostly expected to take a common decision. Islah’s standpoint differs greatly this time from that in the 1999 presidential elections. In the previous elections, the Islah took a stand at the crossroads of the ruling party and the opposition.
The party was actually reconciling its interests that were in the government’s side, was the hope to secure a longer life for the religious institutes. Unfortunately, the Islah, after the 1999 presidential elections, was disappointed by the authority’s move to crack down religious institutes, a development that drew it closer to the Nasserite and Socialist party.
In the local council elections of 2000 and legislative polls of 2003, the party managed to forge a strong alliance with the two parties. In the coming presidential elections in 2006, the Islah is not likely to repeat its attitude of the 1999 elections.
Political observers rule out that the Islah will nominate its own challenger in the next presidential elections, in 2006, apart from its umbrella, the JMP. Islah’s is now slated to sit with other stakeholders over the competition in the presidential polls.
A sign of smoother alliance is the fact that the Socialists last general conference came up to the estimation of the Islah, as it elected to the new secretary general veteran Yasin Saeed Noaman, a figure well recognized among Islahis.
The Socialist Party
The major alterations within the Socialist – in the time interval between the last and the next presidential elections – are the regrouping and recovery of its post-1994 status. After the success of their fifth general conference, the Socialists revived their nostalgia for a return to the presidency in a political deal by making use of being a unity stakeholder. The party even contemplates a competition for taking the office on its own through a strong rivalry. This prompts the party to adopt a political rather than ideological social identity, which marked it off over the time of its rule in the south.
In general, the Socialists views the presidential competitions as to be determined by the role of the ruling authority and the authenticity of the reforms within the JMP.
Popular Union Nasserite Party
The party is waiting carefully for outcome of the current dialogues between other opposition parties of the joint meeting and the ruling party. In its tenth conference, the party did not mention its position over the coming presidential elections like Islah party and Yemeni Socialist Party.
But the leadership of the Wahdawi party confirmed that it would compete in the elections through the Joint Meeting Parties or not.
As there is a disagreement occurred between the party and Yemeni Socialist Party on initiative of the joint meeting parties on political reforms in the country.
Arab National Ba’ath Party, Haq Party and Federation of the Popular Forces are suffering from weakness of their structure and absence popularly.
These parties granted together not more 40,000 votes in the latest parliamentary elections.
Despite of their current situation, but the three parties are still playing important role, especially Haq Party and Federation of the Popular Forces as they represent interests of groups of the society.
Third- The National Council for Opposition Parties
This gathering includes eight Yemeni political parties; Democratic Nasserite Party, National Front for Democracy, Social and National Party, Party of liberation Front, Party of Popular Unity, Party of Yemen League, Party of Union Popular Liberation and Democratic Federation for Popular Forces.
All of these parties have not representation in the parliament and have not any serious opposition positions in the Yemeni political arena. It is expected that they will support a candidate of the ruling party in the coming presidential elections.
There are political parties stand out of the JMP, and the national council; Yemeni Sons League (Ray) and the Yemen Wahdawi Tajammo Party.
The Yemeni Sons League was first Yemeni political party who issued a statement in which he welcomed initiative of the president Ali Abdullah Saleh that he will not nominate himself for the coming elections. The party is not represented in the parliament and has limited attendance in Aden and Hadhramout governorates.
The party of Yemen Wahdawai Tajammo has little impact in the Yemeni political life and not represented in the parliament. The two parties may boycott the elections.